First American Financial Corp Reports September 2025 Home Price Index: A Mixed Bag for Housing Markets
In the latest press release from First American Data & Analytics, the September 2025 Home Price Index (HPI) reveals significant trends and regional disparities in the national housing market. As the market begins to cool, the report highlights how affordability constraints and inventory improvements are reshaping buyer dynamics.
1. National Trends: A Cooling Market
According to First American’s report, national house prices have dipped 0.7 percent below their peak in May 2025. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, noted, “Nationally, house prices are now 0.7 percent below their peak in May as demand adjusts to affordability constraints and inventory improves.” The report indicates that buyers are experiencing a more favorable landscape with greater choices and improved negotiating power as annual price appreciation slows to its most gradual pace since 2012.
Key Metrics from the September 2025 HPI
The September report provides the following insights into national home price changes:
| Metric | Change in HPI |
|---|---|
| Month-over-month (August 2025-September 2025) | -0.1 percent |
| Year-over-year (September 2024-September 2025) | +1.1 percent |
This marks the tenth consecutive month of slowing annual price appreciation, with price growth remaining unchanged from last month’s report.
2. Regional Disparities: Local Markets on Divergent Paths
While the national trend indicates a cooling market, regional differences are evident. The report emphasizes that house prices have decreased year-over-year in 19 of the 30 largest markets tracked. However, this overarching trend masks significant variances. For example, cities like Cincinnati have shown strong house price growth, while areas such as Phoenix and Tampa are still recalibrating after periods of rapid price increases during the pandemic.
Highlights from Local Market Price Tiers
The HPI segments home price changes into three tiers—starter, mid, and luxury—reflecting the varying dynamics at different price points:
| Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) Ranked by Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in Starter Tier HPI |
|-----------------------------------------------------|
| CBSA | Change in Starter Tier HPI | Change in Mid-Tier HPI | Change in Luxury Tier HPI |
| St. Louis | +10.3 percent | +4.6 percent | +8.2 percent |
| Pittsburgh | +9.0 percent | +4.4 percent | +4.5 percent |
| Warren, Mich. | +6.9 percent | +3.3 percent | +3.1 percent |
| Baltimore | +3.1 percent | +2.5 percent | +3.4 percent |
| Fort Worth, Texas | +2.7 percent | +0.5 percent | +1.2 percent |
Additionally, the report highlights the top cities with the greatest year-over-year increases in overall HPI, showcasing Cincinnati's impressive growth of +8.4 percent, followed by New York and Cambridge, Mass.
3. Areas of Decline: The Struggles of Hot Markets
Conversely, several markets are experiencing notable declines in home prices:
| Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with a Year-Over-Year Decrease in HPI |
|-----------------------------------------------------|
| CBSA | Change in HPI |
| Oakland, Calif. | -7.4 percent |
| Tampa, Fla. | -5.9 percent |
| Phoenix | -4.5 percent |
| Riverside, Calif. | -3.6 percent |
| Denver | -3.0 percent |
These figures highlight the shifting landscape in markets that previously thrived during the pandemic.
4. Looking Ahead
The next release of the First American Data & Analytics House Price Index is scheduled for the week of November 17, 2025. As the market continues to adapt to changing conditions, stakeholders will be keen to monitor these trends closely.
In conclusion, First American’s September 2025 HPI report provides a nuanced view of the housing market, illustrating both the cooling national trends and the diverse regional dynamics that define the current landscape. As buyers regain negotiating power, the question remains: will these trends lead to a more balanced market, or will disparities continue to widen across different areas?
